Hey Viv2011
Here's my two-pence worth.....
I think once you get the CSS - you will be offered a place at ESF (albeit it may not be in the school of your residential catchment - as I know people this has happened to). Which area do you plan to live in?
We arrived in HK in Dec and hence couldn't apply for CSS mid school year and are waiting for my child to get into current Y2. This is difficult year to get into as well - there are children in holding schools waiting for Y2 entry into all of the ESF island schools.
BUT do not fret as a newcomer to HK, i believe, you are given priority. Also, as people say, there is also a lot of movement over the summer break - families leave HK as well as kids currently in ESF leaving to go to the other International schools.
French & Kellett are pretty much impossible to get into as a newcomer unless you have a debenture.
GSIS - need to do an assessment and even if you have the debenture there is no guarantee of entry. They have spaces but won't fill them unless an 'exceptional' candidate is presented I believe.
I know parents who have put their kids in Harbour School whilst waiting for Y3 spaces - maybe an option worth considering if you really don't want you child to be at home in the early days of you arriving here in August.
I have had a tough time with kids not getting into school here too, it is a very sensitive topic for almost all new parents to HK. But all I can say...is things do work out, just need to be a little patient and stay calm!
Have you looked at HONG KONG Academy? - IB curriculum and currently based in Kennedy Town (but moving to Sai Kung in 2013)
Private message me if you want more info on our experiences on schools since we got here.....happy to share